From population to HIV: the organizational and structural determinants of HIV outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa

Table 2 Standardized coefficients from ordinary least squares regressions predicting HIV outcomes, sub-Saharan Africa, 2001-2009

Covariates	(1) Change in HIV prevalence 2001-09	(2) Change in HIV incidence 2001-09	(3) ARV coverage 2009	(4) PMTCT coverage 2009
Population-related variables
Population policy indicator	-0.102	-0.533*	0.303*	0.304**
IPPF affiliate founded before 1986	-0.468*	-0.025	-0.009	-0.050
General controls
GDP per capita	-0.027	-0.671**	0.271*	0.347**
Cultural fractionalization	-0.196	0.120	-0.261 *	-0.124
Former British colony	0.330	0.454*	-0.214	0.202†
HIV-related controls
PEPFAR focus country	0.365†	-0.187	0.349*	0.301**
Global Fund HIV disbursements	0.089	-0.527*	0.373**	0.359**
Antiretroviral coverage	-0.361	0.455†
Epidemic peaked prior to 1999	-0.549**	-0.391 *
N	34	32	42	41
R²	47.9%	46.4%	56.1 %	72.9%

Note: Significance indicated by † p < 0.10 level; * p < 0.05 level; ** p < 0.01 level, *** p < 0.001 level
Countries missing from Model 1: Cape Verde, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Liberia, Mauritius, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia and Sudan
Countries missing from Model 2: Burundi, Cape Verde, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Liberia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Mauritius, Sao Tome and Principe, Somalia and Sudan
Countries missing from Model 3: Cape Verde, Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, and Somalia Countries missing from Model 4: Cape Verde, Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe, and Somalia